Understanding Prices
Learn how prices map to probabilities and move with order flow
Probability pricing
Outcome shares trade between $0.00 and $1.00. The price is the market-implied probability.
- $0.25 implies ~25%
- $0.70 implies ~70%
Payout logic
- Winning outcome share: $1.00
- Losing outcome share: $0.00
Example: buying at $0.40 gives up to $0.60 upside per winning share.
Why prices change
- New information enters the market.
- Buy/sell pressure shifts bids and asks.
- Liquidity depth changes execution quality.
Order-book signals to watch
- Best bid/ask: nearest executable prices.
- Spread: narrower spread usually means cleaner fills.
- Midpoint: quick fair-value reference between bid and ask.